Success Survivor Bias- Emulating our heroes is a tricky business

Length: Approx 1300 words/6 minutes

I consider scientists who can write for the layman to be a national treasure. This task is, from what I can tell, pretty hard work. Can you imagine trying to bring the mysteries of something like astronomy to the masses? Fortunately those like Carl Sagan and his heir Niels deGrasse Tyson have tackled this task on our behalf.

A double good fortune is that there are also good writers in the fields of psychology and the behavioral sciences to explain the secrets of our minds and the reasons that we behave as we do. Who after all, does not like to hear about what makes us tick? These scientist-writers open that door for us.

What is interesting about these fields is that they have revealed many human characteristics that we deny having. Even when they are explained to us we still fudge around the fact with a “No, I don’t do that.” Ha! Famous last words!

Confirmation bias is one of these tics. This occurs when we look at new data or evidence and consider them nothing more than a validation stamp of our existing beliefs. Say, for example, that I bought a stock based on my in-depth research and sure enough today it went up. That means my research and conclusions were valid right? Well, maybe not. Maybe the stock went up because of something outside the bounds of my research—it might have been insider trading. We make these errors every day and while they are often harmless, they can sometimes be quite serious. Think of a pilot flying in the clouds who convinces himself that he is clear of a mountain. Of course he is right isn’t he? After all, he just looked at the map to make sure of where he was…

Another not so hidden bias makes us want to follow the trail blazed by successful people. We can’t get enough of the biographies of those who have done great things in life. Whether it is a sports figure like the swimmer Michael Phelps, a scientist like Richard Feynman, or business pioneers like Elon Musk or Steve Jobs we are captivated by them—often with good reason.

Elon Musk
Worthy of emulation? You decide!

It is natural therefore that we wish to know “how they did it” and bookstores, both real and virtual, serve this desire by bursting with shelves of books that tell us everything we want to know about these luminaries and their magic secret to success.

Part of our interest is to know if it would work for us. If we followed the same daily regimen could we get the same results? An eternal question no doubt and the answer is, at least for most of us, probably not—even if we read the books they do, train as they do, and concentrate our minds on the things that they do.

This is where we get caught in the illusion of success survivor bias. Those who get books written by and about them are survivors in this game of success. What they did worked for them but that is no guarantee that it will work for us. Sure, good habits and work/play patterns are both admirable and necessary to any kind of good life, but we cannot overlook that there is also a certain spark in these individuals, something that is often indiscernible and elusive, that has to be there to accomplish great things. Sadly, just getting up at 4:30 a.m. to run full tilt until late evening is only part of it.

Brett McKay produces a podcast called The Art of Manliness. This is a misnomer for in my opinion he covers topics that are of interest to both sides of the gender equation. In December 2016 Brett hosted Tim Ferriss who is the author of the bestseller The Tools of Titans. Now both these gentlemen are far above average, almost atmospheric in the case of Ferriss, yet they have discussed this concept of success survivor bias and the extreme lengths we go to mimic the habits of high-achievers. It was the first time I had heard it of it and I recommend it to you here: McKay interviews Ferriss I found it all the more interesting as the habits they discussed are as foreign to me as a manuscript written in Sanskrit.

We who are cut from average timber already kind of/sort of intuit this. I am the same age as Michael Jordon and if we both, when we were seniors in high school, shot 200 free throws per day there is no question that Michael would have benefitted more from the task as he had that spark and I did not. Of course this type of practice is exactly what Jordon did each day and through him we discover one of the definitions of talent—the results gained for the amount of time practiced.

While we average folk complete our tasks with diligence and perseverance, at some point reality dictates that we decide whether we should really enslave our lives to grinding schedules in the hopes of a payoff that might never arrive. In other words, we can practice a lot of things yet never get that much better.

This is a personal decision and a hard one to make. I certainly don’t know where the line is and chalk it up to being one of those aspects of life that has no answer. I do know though that we, myself included, are eager consumers of the stories of those who are either born with great gifts and talents or have beavered away for years in anonymity to finally make it good.

Since we are left to find our own way, perhaps the best advice is to mix and match those techniques that work for us in our lives. Emulating all the habits of the great and the good can be a fool’s errand—particularly if there is not an underlying talent just waiting to be unleashed…and as an average gent I know that there is only so much in my tank to start.

While we admire and are inspired by those “who never gave up,” Let’s be realistic about it all to make things better for ourselves, our families, and our friends. If you have the talent then enjoy it and run with it. If not, come join me in the bleachers of the just average and we can enjoy the spectacle together—there is always plenty of room after all!

Success survivor bias, by the way is not necessarily a bad thing—just something to be managed. It often inspires youth to be bold and ambitious in setting goals while learning to manage risk. Remember though, it is the survivors that we hear from. They are the ones who can speak of the elation of having met challenges and dangers head on and stared them down. We forget that those who do not make it are always not here to offer an opposing voice.

Each afternoon around three p.m. (yes, that is 3 post meridian and not 3 ante meridian) when I pull myself from bed I think first of all the great things that have already been accomplished that very day by those high-achievers in the success survivor brigade. God bless them I say as I reassure them that I surely shan’t stand in their way!

In the meantime, stay average!

5 Comments

  1. Linda

    I sincerely hope you jest when stating the time you extricate yourself from the sheets?

    Reply
    • NealSchier

      Only when I have to work at night… 🙂

      Reply
  2. Fitz

    Great piece, Neal. Interestingly, my brother follows Ferriss, whether via books or tweets or what have you. I’ve not gone to your link…but is Ferriss actually saying “try these if you want, your mileage may vary”? Wonder why he writes books then, but perhaps I’m seeing this too simplistically.

    The thing I truly appreciate about this piece though is that you give me a framework for some other questions I ponder. For instance, I once developed a rule of thumb I wish I knew how to implement. This rule states: Wanting the job of POTUS, and to perhaps a lesser degree, Senator or Congressman is grounds for automatic disqualification from the position. For the candidates that finally meet head to head are (and the one that wins is), in fact, survivor(s) of what might be regarded (as I do, with admitted cynicism) a tawdry primary/election process which has little to do with the quality of serving in the position.

    Similarly, we rarely see the costs paid to survive. Recently Elon Musk has Tweeted about what might be his bipolar disorder. His money quote:“If you buy a ticket to hell, it isn’t fair to blame hell …”. What price, then, survival?

    Again – great piece, and thanks for introducing me to a concept I hadn’t before encountered!

    Reply
    • NealSchier

      Thank you Fitz. You bring to light an interesting conundrum that exists for readers and the famous authors who frequently publish books that proffer advice to them. Dr. Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, Antifragile, and others, recently wrote Skin the Game in which he drumbeats (almost to no end unfortunately) the advice not to listen to anyone who is giving advice and might be perceived as an “expert”…hmmmm…that’s an interesting approach to say the least.

      Although I have not read Skin in the Game, I have the other two and one of the criticisms that I have for him, despite his clear erudition, is that not everyone out there is the village idiot and that good advice can be found. A wag on the Amazon reviews of this book said that Taleb is telling you to ignore all the advice that comes your way but nevertheless his book cover is chock filled with blurbs as to why we should read and heed this most important book!

      I think that yes, Ferriss and McKay were saying that there are a lot of got tips and hacks for life out there but, as you said, your mileage may vary so be careful. I think this is a reasonable approach and applaud Ferriss and McKay for saying so in this podcast. I can’t speak to Ferriss’ books however. Something I will look into though.

      As luck would have it, today (19 August 2018) I heard a Freakanomics podcast that I wish I had heard before I wrote this post. Part of it was an interview with the head of British cycling–both the Olympic team and the SKY team that participates in such races as the Tour de France. He stressed what the Freakanomics moderator called incrementalism. There might not be one specific thing that makes or breaks you, but a lot of things contribute. I liked that word contribute as it very much implies that there are a lot of things that we can do in life that are small and might work for us. Mix and Match, Use or Discard, etc. We just have to be careful of copying others as they are a different make and model thus different mileage.

      Your other point is even more trenchant in that we need to take stock of what exactly it is we wish to be. You mention how the campaigns for high office despoil one and I agree. This, as you imply, is much deeper than the “be careful what you wish for” as these are paths that men and women deliberately chose to go down. Nothing of course against being an elected rep, but your point is well made as it applies to any pursuit in life. We need to be well enough grounded to realize that the process and path to a goal is going to change us in ways that we never expected–we need to ensure that they don’t change us in ways that we do not, or should not, want.

      Cheers
      Neal

      Reply
  3. Fitz

    Reminds me, Neal, of logic conundrums. You know the type: “If George always lies, and Betty never lies which statement must be true?” In this case the conundrum appears to be Taleb admonishing readers to ignore advice, when the statement itself is, well, advice.

    Again, superb piece.

    Reply

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5 Comments

  1. Linda

    I sincerely hope you jest when stating the time you extricate yourself from the sheets?

    Reply
    • NealSchier

      Only when I have to work at night… 🙂

      Reply
  2. Fitz

    Great piece, Neal. Interestingly, my brother follows Ferriss, whether via books or tweets or what have you. I’ve not gone to your link…but is Ferriss actually saying “try these if you want, your mileage may vary”? Wonder why he writes books then, but perhaps I’m seeing this too simplistically.

    The thing I truly appreciate about this piece though is that you give me a framework for some other questions I ponder. For instance, I once developed a rule of thumb I wish I knew how to implement. This rule states: Wanting the job of POTUS, and to perhaps a lesser degree, Senator or Congressman is grounds for automatic disqualification from the position. For the candidates that finally meet head to head are (and the one that wins is), in fact, survivor(s) of what might be regarded (as I do, with admitted cynicism) a tawdry primary/election process which has little to do with the quality of serving in the position.

    Similarly, we rarely see the costs paid to survive. Recently Elon Musk has Tweeted about what might be his bipolar disorder. His money quote:“If you buy a ticket to hell, it isn’t fair to blame hell …”. What price, then, survival?

    Again – great piece, and thanks for introducing me to a concept I hadn’t before encountered!

    Reply
    • NealSchier

      Thank you Fitz. You bring to light an interesting conundrum that exists for readers and the famous authors who frequently publish books that proffer advice to them. Dr. Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, Antifragile, and others, recently wrote Skin the Game in which he drumbeats (almost to no end unfortunately) the advice not to listen to anyone who is giving advice and might be perceived as an “expert”…hmmmm…that’s an interesting approach to say the least.

      Although I have not read Skin in the Game, I have the other two and one of the criticisms that I have for him, despite his clear erudition, is that not everyone out there is the village idiot and that good advice can be found. A wag on the Amazon reviews of this book said that Taleb is telling you to ignore all the advice that comes your way but nevertheless his book cover is chock filled with blurbs as to why we should read and heed this most important book!

      I think that yes, Ferriss and McKay were saying that there are a lot of got tips and hacks for life out there but, as you said, your mileage may vary so be careful. I think this is a reasonable approach and applaud Ferriss and McKay for saying so in this podcast. I can’t speak to Ferriss’ books however. Something I will look into though.

      As luck would have it, today (19 August 2018) I heard a Freakanomics podcast that I wish I had heard before I wrote this post. Part of it was an interview with the head of British cycling–both the Olympic team and the SKY team that participates in such races as the Tour de France. He stressed what the Freakanomics moderator called incrementalism. There might not be one specific thing that makes or breaks you, but a lot of things contribute. I liked that word contribute as it very much implies that there are a lot of things that we can do in life that are small and might work for us. Mix and Match, Use or Discard, etc. We just have to be careful of copying others as they are a different make and model thus different mileage.

      Your other point is even more trenchant in that we need to take stock of what exactly it is we wish to be. You mention how the campaigns for high office despoil one and I agree. This, as you imply, is much deeper than the “be careful what you wish for” as these are paths that men and women deliberately chose to go down. Nothing of course against being an elected rep, but your point is well made as it applies to any pursuit in life. We need to be well enough grounded to realize that the process and path to a goal is going to change us in ways that we never expected–we need to ensure that they don’t change us in ways that we do not, or should not, want.

      Cheers
      Neal

      Reply
  3. Fitz

    Reminds me, Neal, of logic conundrums. You know the type: “If George always lies, and Betty never lies which statement must be true?” In this case the conundrum appears to be Taleb admonishing readers to ignore advice, when the statement itself is, well, advice.

    Again, superb piece.

    Reply

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